you need to scrabble off all the flaking paint water has got behind it.
Here is a one we did last year...what you think is good paint is not, that started as a patch by the window. However the wire brush on the angle grinder found a different story.
View attachment 303452
We made good the bigger damage above the GF window and in the end decided to spray it with sand and cement for a slight stippled effect to get over the thicknesses. From the looks of your paint and the bubbles you will find it flakes off in large plates.
Pls ignore my son he is doing his best to look like he is working.