How's your luck with Premium Bonds?

I've always suspected that old bonds go stale after a while. Anyway, Mrs Mottie and I both cashed our bonds in a few months ago and put them elsewhere. We both get the equivalent of four and a bit 'wins' each and every month. Guaranteed.
However, not long after we cashed in, we had an unexpected lump sum come back to us when her brother repaid both us and her sister back some money he had borrowed four years ago, so….we bought more bonds! We now have just under £19k in bonds. With our 'fresh' bonds, we have just had this win which is more than we had ever won before when we had the maximum holding:

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This works out to more than 9.5% p.a. return. Not bad!

Co-incidence? I don’t think so. If we still have the bonds in a years time I’m going to cash them in and get a fresh lot again!
 
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JohnD said:
Then you have always been wrong.



That's not how random numbers work.
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No, I haven’t. Most people who don’t know that put it down to 'beginners luck'. People Have bonds for years and years so on that basis you would think that if it was random, there would be an equal mix of the age of winning bonds but there just isn’t. Look on it as picking raffle tickets in a pot that is always filling up with new tickets. The older ones get nearer and nearer to the bottom and are harder to reach. ;)

In any case, the 'Guaranteed' that you quoted was my 'guaranteed' monthly income from investing my bond money elsewhere. Gua. ran. teed!
 
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Mottie said:
No, I haven’t.
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Yes you have. There are fewer old bonds because (1) people used to buy them in smaller numbers and (2) they get cashed in. When you sell bonds, the oldest part of your holding is cashed first. When you die, your old bonds can't be inherited.

Since there are fewer old bonds, they win fewer prizes.

Add "random numbers" to the list of things you don't understand.
 
JohnD said:
Yes you have. There are fewer old bonds because (1) people used to buy them in smaller numbers and (2) they get cashed in. When you sell bonds, the oldest part of your holding is cashed first. When you die, your old bonds can't be inherited.

Since there are fewer old bonds, they win fewer prizes.

Add "random numbers" to the list of things you don't understand.
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If random really is random, we should be seeing 30 year old £1 bonds winning as often as new ones. We aren’t. Anyway, £150 on £19k for a month ain’t too bad. I’m happy with that. You’re obviously not. Never mind, you’ll get another chance to pîss on my bonfire next month. Gives you something to live for I suppose. ;)
 
Mottie said:
If random really is random, we should be seeing 30 year old £1 bonds winning as often as new ones.
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Only if the number of them held was the same. Which it isn't. Thirty years ago nobody could buy £50,000 worth.

How many of the people who had a thousand pounds to spare thirty years ago are still alive and have never needed it?

The list of things you don't understand is quite long.
 
£100 on £100k PB

not great, I guess it would pay for about 1 day of my energy bill
 
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