Oh dear!

The figures are based on estimates of how the 2019 vote would play out in the new constituencies, using local election results since 2019, so an element of guesswork given people vote differently in locals. Im not a fan of Starmy, but a landslide victory with the necessary swing is coming, not even Gary can help the tories now.
 
and yet the other day you were whining I was “hedging my bets” by saying it’s not certain Labour would win.


I’ve stated more than once on here that Labour need a bigger swing than 1997 to win, so your headline is hardly news.
 
People like mottie will vote blue regardless.
I think it's Reform, libdems and others that can really affect the swing. If they take some Tory seats the swing needed is less. If they take Labour seats then its more.

But if we vote Tories in again then we deserve more of the same don't we mottie (and others)
 
Don't think Starmer could get away with letting 750 000 people in. So why not Starmer, Tories have shot their bolt on controlling the numbers.
 
Mottie said:
This is bound to cause a few on here to choke on their muesli.

www.bbc.co.uk

General election: Labour would need record swing to win

Analysis shows the effect of the new election boundaries. Use our tool to look up your constituency.
www.bbc.co.uk
Click to expand...
At the last election, a lot of Labour voters gave the Tories a leg-up, purely because of the Brexit garbage. Now that lot has gone south and Brexit is a total pile of turd, I doubt they will be voting for the Cons, this time around.
 
Mottie said:
This is bound to cause a few on here to choke on their muesli.
Click to expand...

Have you always been a Tory, Mottie, or did Mrs T convert you? I'm not making any sort of point, just interested. (It is a discussion forum after all, at least occasionally!)
 
30 pee lee's seat is a good example of how a brexxer takes over a safe Labour seat that will swing back to labour come November.
 
JonathanM said:
Have you always been a Tory, Mottie, or did Mrs T convert you? I'm not making any sort of point, just interested. (It is a discussion forum after all, at least occasionally!)
Click to expand...
I think I voted labour once and there were a couple of GE's that I didn’t bother voting in.
 
Mottie said:
I think I voted labour once and there were a couple of GE's that I didn’t bother voting in.
Click to expand...

My first election I voted for the Alliance and since then it's always been Labour, apart from two when I didn't bother. There's no way I could vote for Corbyn! And I wasn't sure about Kinnock.
 
blup said:
30 pee lee's seat is a good example of how a brexxer takes over a safe Labour seat that will swing back to labour come November.
Click to expand...
Leanderthal is typical of the 2019 intake, not one nation Conservatives, just right wing grifters devoid of principles.

Boris Johnson won a big majority, but he did it with an awful lot of constituencies with small margins

the big problem for Labour aside from Tory gerrymandering, is the loss of Labour seats to SNP in Scotland
 
One of the reasons Conservatives have won so many times is because for many many years they were the only party on the right, whereas the left vote was spread amongst Labour, Lib Dem / sdp / liberal / green etc etc

but the rise of UKIP / Brexit party / reform has put pressure on Conservatives to move further right, but now they are no longer Conservatives just right wing populists and are alienating the “small c Conservatives” which are probably the biggest section of their voter base.
 
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