Bibby Bargain Barge?

[motorbiking]

Its not what the data shows.

Not to mention the "policy" is a multi-faceted approach. It's not just Rwanda, not just making illegal entrants in admissible, not just prosecuting the skipper using drone footage, not just paying the French etc etc.

In addition the French Police have received lots of money to increase their patrols.

Similarly, it's already been established that the Albanian issue has been settled, so that will effect the numbers over last year...
Motorbiking is claiming the policy is working

It seems its you claiming the policy is working.

 

[Roy Bloom]

Not to mention the "policy" is a multi-faceted approach. It's not just Rwanda, not just making illegal entrants in admissible, not just prosecuting the skipper using drone footage, not just paying the French etc etc.
It seems its you claiming the policy is working.

You are claiming the policy is working because there haven't been any crossing in a week, in mid-winter.

You may not like the policy, you may even say there are better ideas, but it's untrue to say they are not dealing with the problem. There have been zero crossings in the last 7 days, but there have been F6+ winds over the same period. The numbers are down over 2022.

 

[Notch7]

Its not what the data shows.

Not to mention the "policy" is a multi-faceted approach. It's not just Rwanda, not just making illegal entrants in admissible, not just prosecuting the skipper using drone footage, not just paying the French etc etc.





It seems its you claiming the policy is working.

if You take out the Albanian numbers from the figures, you get the drop in numbers Sunak is claiming.

So the Rwanda scheme and the illegal illegal migrant act are having no effect whatsoever.

not just making illegal entrants in admissible

they are still arriving, but they aren’t going anywhere now.

the Conservatives great plans have increased the numbers

 

[Notch7]

Its not what the data shows

The data shows the Albanian deal has worked and nothing else has.

but mates of Tories are getting nice and fat on those profitable deals…the data shows that

 

[motorbiking]

So the numbers aren't down by almost half from Afghanistan, Syria, Iran and Iraq? oh wait.. they are.

 

[Roy Bloom]

So the numbers aren't down by almost half from Afghanistan, Syria, Iran and Iraq? oh wait.. they are.

Show us the data.
If the total numbers are slightly up on 2021, but those numbers you mentioned are down, others must be up.

 

[motorbiking]

The data is in your link, perhaps you could read it? Your argument that its all down to a deal with Albania, is as blown out of the water as the boats that attacked the Maersk Hangzhou

You are claiming the policy is working because there haven't been any crossing in a week, in mid-winter.

nonsense

 

[Roy Bloom]

The data is in your link, perhaps you could read it? Your argument that its all down to a deal with Albania, is as blown out of the water as the boats that attacked the Maersk Hangzhou

There are no numbers for Albanians in the 2023 data.
That's over 12,500 reduction just for Albanians. The record figure for 2022 was 45,700.
Less the 12500 for Albanians, we could expect the 2023 figure to be in the 33,000 range (one heck of a record year even without the Albanians), so at 28,500 for 2023, there's not a lot to crow about.
The figures for Afghanistan will naturally reduce over the years since the US/UK retreats.

The figures for Turkey, Eritrea and Others has increased to offset the decrease in numbers from those countries you mentioned, which is exactly what I said: a reduction in some must be offset by an increase in others, if the figures are not so different.

And apart from the Albanians, you're still comparing 2023 with a record year.
And I didn't say it was all down to the Albanians, I said a lot of it is down to the Albanians.

There's going to be variations in the country of origin from year to year.

Your argument is as illogical as the climate-weather argument.
Because one year was a colder year, it does not mean that there is no climate change.

 

[motorbiking]

If you follow the source from your link you can actually download the tables (to September)

I have highlighted those with increases. The fall is not accounted for by removing Albania.

 

[motorbiking]

There are no numbers for Albanians in the 2023 data.

see data above.

That's over 12,500 reduction just for Albanians. The record figure for 2022 was 45,700.
Less the 12500 for Albanians, we could expect the 2023 figure to be in the 33,000 range (one heck of a record year even without the Albanians), so at 28,500 for 2023, there's not a lot to crow about.

So thats boll@x then.

And I didn't say it was all down to the Albanians, I said a lot of it is down to the Albanians.

and yet you used all of them to justify the off-set.

Your argument is as illogical as the climate-weather argument.
Because one year was a colder year, it does not mean that there is no climate change.

You'll get dizzy with all this hop skipping about and rolling eyes,

 

[Roy Bloom]

If you follow the source from your link you can actually download the tables (to September)
View attachment 327246 I have highlighted those with increases. The fall is not accounted for by removing Albania.

I'm really not interested in drilling down into the data to identify any increases or decreases of which country of origin.
The headline data is:
2021 was 28,500,
2022 45,700 of which about 12,500 were Albainian. That makes a record year of about 33,200 arrivals.
2023 was about 29,500

So you want to claim that the policy is working because there was a reduction from last year, which was an unusually high record year.

As I said, it's like the climate change deniers arguing that last year was unusually cold so climate change is a hoax.
It's trends that matter not one years worth of data.
And the trend is quite obviously a continuing slight increase year on year, with an outlier for last year.

You can get into drilling down into which country of origin changed from one year to the next, if you want, but it doesn't alter the headline figures nor the trend.

 

[Roy Bloom]

see data above.

Nothing of any significance.

So thats boll@x then.

A well rounded intellectual argument. My grandson can do better than that.

and yet you used all of them to justify the off-set.

Jesus!
If the headline figure is not much different, and you argue that there was a reduction in certain countries of origin, if the total isn't much different, there must have been increase from elsewhere. It's not rocket science. It really doesn't matter from where, there were increases.

You'll get dizzy with all this hop skipping about and rolling eyes,

You'll get yourself stuck in that hole with your drilling down into the minutiae of who came from where in a vain attempt to argue that the headline figure isn't slightly increasing year on year.

2022 was an extraordinary high record year, even not counting the Albanians, so to argue the numbers are going down based on comparison of a reocd year with last year (happy new year) is nonsense.

My expenditure is way more than my income for last year compared to the year before, so I'll be bankrupt at this rate.
Except I won't because I bought a new car last year, so my expenditure was unusually high for one year.

 

[motorbiking]

No you get to the facts, that don’t support your argument that if you remove Albanians from 2022 you get to the same number as 2023 and that 2022 was an outlier. Complete nonsense as usual

 

[Roy Bloom]

No you get to the facts, that don’t support your argument that if you remove Albanians from 2022 you get to the same number as 2023 and that 2022 was an outlier. Complete nonsense as usual

What??? You're off your rocker, well off it.
I never said that 2022 total minus the Albanians was equal to the 2023 total.
I very definitly said that the 2022 total, minus the Albanians was about 33,200.
And we know that the 2023 figure was about 29,000.

Why would I propose that 32,200 was the same as 29,000?
You're deluded.
I said 2022 was an outlier:

the record 45,774 crossings for the whole of 2022.

Channel migrants: Crossings fell in 2023, government figures show

Government figures show 29,437 people crossed the Channel in 2023, down 36% on 2022.

www.bbc.com

Even with the Albanians deducted it wa still an outlier. (Unless it was part of the trend and 2023 was a far outlier, well reduced for adverse weather conditions)

Moreover the 2023 total is also thought to be an outlier in the opposite direction, i.e unusually low, even though greater than 2021.

However, the Immigration Services Union (ISU), which represents border staff, said the decrease in small boat arrivals in 2023 was likely a "glitch", with "higher numbers" expected in 2024.
Lucy Moreton from the ISU ...: "The planning assumption for 2024 is that 2023 has been unusually low. There have been other confounding factors — we have had particularly high winds, we have had a larger number of days where it is less likely that we are going to get migrants in boats.
"But we have also had much larger boats, much more seaworthy boats, so the planning assumption is that this is a glitch.

Channel migrants: Crossings fell in 2023, government figures show

Government figures show 29,437 people crossed the Channel in 2023, down 36% on 2022.

www.bbc.com

Let's see what 2024 brings and we might have a clearer picture of which years figures were outliers.

For all your desparate scrabbling around, drilling into the minutiea of who came from where, you've been proven wrong on several issues.

 

[carmanmemoranda]

Looks like 2024 is expected to be a bad year for numbers.

I wouldn't claim any good news on the figures, or Rishi's claims yet