Stock market dealing

If you find a strategy that works and it's completely mechanistic then, sure, you can write some code and run it on past data to backtest it. But you say to listen to tradertv, and the other day you changed your strategy after you had a loss and started scalping. So neither of those is mechanistic. If I really believe that there is a mechanistic solution then I would probably have to play around with computer code to look for the solution for months. But if I don't believe that it exists, that's not much of a motivation.

If I'm looking for a non-mechanistic strategy and decide to backtest by printing out charts, then to simulate it fully I also need to find the past tradertv broadcast and run that at the same time. I suppose if I feel like doing that at the weekend or evenings I could, but I really don't think it's smart to spend all my time sitting at a computer. Better to live test it on another day's action surely.
 
Riot Blockchain Inc (All Sessions)_20240620_14.09.png


I entered Riot at 14:49 and got out at 15:20. Bitcoin was in a downward trend and had pulled back a bit, Riot was also in a downward trend and had pulled back with high volume which was then declining.
 
20/06/2024Coinbase Global Inc (All Sessions)DFB-0.515:522366616:0023846.2-£90.10
20/06/2024NVIDIA Corp (All Sessions)DFB-0.515:061393715:2313820£58.50
20/06/2024NVIDIA Corp (All Sessions)DFB-0.515:061393715:2513811£63.00
20/06/2024Coinbase Global Inc (All Sessions)DFB-0.515:032384315:1823454.4£194.30
£225.70​
 
If you find a strategy that works and it's completely mechanistic then, sure, you can write some code and run it on past data to backtest it. But you say to listen to tradertv, and the other day you changed your strategy after you had a loss and started scalping. So neither of those is mechanistic. If I really believe that there is a mechanistic solution then I would probably have to play around with computer code to look for the solution for months. But if I don't believe that it exists, that's not much of a motivation.
No I don't work that way, but I'm suggesting you try because you don't have any strategy apart from having a go at something random, as far as I can tell.


If I'm looking for a non-mechanistic strategy and decide to backtest by printing out charts, then to simulate it fully I also need to find the past tradertv broadcast and run that at the same time. I suppose if I feel like doing that at the weekend or evenings I could, but I really don't think it's smart to spend all my time sitting at a computer. Better to live test it on another day's action surely.
Depends what you want to call mechanistic. If you base a method something on moving averages, it will come up with indications to buy. They won't all work, but enough will that with some added intelligence from you , you'll make a profit. There's plenty pf s/w outthere to try .

A little while ago everyone was yappin about Ethereum. I never really believed it so didn't risk much when I left it cookin on eToro. Just as well:


1718898857279.png
 
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I entered Riot at 14:49 and got out at 15:20. Bitcoin was in a downward trend and had pulled back a bit, Riot was also in a downward trend and had pulled back with high volume which was then declining.
No that's not a downtrend, you have 20 minutes of it doing bugger all. A couple of candles on the 1 minute isn't a downtrend. No that's not a pull back in a downtrend. I don't think you would honestly say it was, you're trying to make excuses after the fact, again. WHo do you think you're kidding? If you really thought it was as you say, you haven't learned the most basic things. You need to learn more about what counts.

1718899759898.png

And as I said, going short there was stupid.
Losing for the next half hour, was double plus stupid.
 
No that's not a downtrend, you have 20 minutes of it doing bugger all. A couple of candles on the 1 minute isn't a downtrend. No that's not a pull back in a downtrend. I don't think you would honestly say it was, you're trying to make excuses after the fact, again. WHo do you think you're kidding? If you really thought it was as you say, you haven't learned the most basic things. You need to learn more about what counts.

View attachment 346719
And as I said, going short there was stupid.
Losing for the next half hour, was double plus stupid.
Easy to say that it's stupid when it doesn't work. It's not a great downtrend but bitcoin was in a clearer one. If you try to get everything lined up in your favour then you will just stare at the charts for hours and do nothing. You can always find a reason against any trade.
 
Easy to say that it's stupid when it doesn't work.
NO, it's easy to say it's stupid when you ignore the most basic of information which you have. You so often think you have one of the tiny percentage of occasions when it won't apply, and you lose, time and time again, then you hold the long position too long.
You got the trend wrong, you got the direction wrong, you got the entry point reversed. you didn't wait for confirmation. Sorry, to do all that lot together is stupid.
You had a clear bottom and you decided to go short. Wrong every time - once in a blue moon you'll be lucky. You know damned well you shouldn't but you still do it. Ask yourself why.

If you showed that snip I last posted to 10 traders and asked if that was a pullback in a downtrend, they'd all laugh in your face. You have a history of such things.

You can always find a reason against any trade.
Of course, it's always a probablility you're looking for.
If you're trying to say it's therefore impossible to trade and generally win, you're ignoring all the people who do it nearly every day.
In other words, the evidence is against you. Aeroplanes can always crash, but generally, they don't. Is that a reason to not fly? If yes for you, get out of the market now.

So until you can stop getting a multiple number of things wrong at once, stop using money.
If you see a chart, don't try to stretch what you see into something you want to see, work out what it is as though you didn't care. If it's not an obvious, textbook example, don't enter. If that means not trading all day, so be it.

---
I'm almost out of the mag 7 stocks, I've spent all morning shifting things. The chance of a significant drop is getting higher.
Most days it's strongly a question of getting the overall direction right from multiple inputs on a suitable stock and stay in it. That's what Catena does. He sizes down all the time, which he admits he overdoes. He also ignores pullbacks more than he should, ditto. That's what I was doing with the crypto stocks, but that period is over for now.
I'll change broker. The tiddlers like T212 will go bust if the market collapses.
About once a week, after good results, say, all the ducks line up. You can be on a trade which would be right 19 times out of 20.. So I'll look for those and go large. Half a percent on a mill on SB is worth having. A slower high chance play is using the couple of weeks running up to anticipated earnings. There will be good rising periods in there, it's worth the planning.
A simple MACD or MA pattern works enough to win, but only maybe three in four, so it can be a drag.
 
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You had a clear bottom and you decided to go short. Wrong every time - once in ablue moon you'll be lucky. You know damned well you shouldn't but you still do it. Ask yourself why.
Because doing so is participating, not anticipating.
 
No I don't work that way, but I'm suggesting you try because you don't have any strategy apart from having a go at something random, as far as I can tell.
It would be very hard to tell because there are so many things to keep track of that it's impossible to anyone else to see how they are being followed, and on what timeframe. Anyway my strategy now is:

1. Go with the trend
2. Have a catalyst
3. Look at volume
4. Look at MACD
5. Look at moving average crossovers
6. Have a pullback
7. Participate, don't anticipate
8. Always set a stop loss, and don't stay in for long if it's not working.
9. Look at related markets, especially bitcoin in relation to crypto.

21/06/2024​

DEAL​

Hut 8 Mining Corp (US)​

DFB​

+10​

1242.9​

1244.1​

£​

£12.00​

DIAAAAP6KR3MBAK​

21/06/2024​

DEAL​

NVIDIA Corp (All Sessions)​

DFB​

-0.50​

12603​

12727.2​

£​

£-62.10​

DIAAAAP6KLVHJAK​

21/06/2024​

DEAL​

NVIDIA Corp (All Sessions)​

DFB​

-0.50​

12614​

12703​

£​

£-44.50​

DIAAAAP6KTMYZAC​

21/06/2024​

DEAL​

Hut 8 Mining Corp (US)​

DFB​

+10​

1251.9​

1239.9​

£​

£-120.00​

DIAAAAP6KQSEPAK​

21/06/2024​

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Coinbase Global Inc (All Sessions)​

DFB​

-1​

22439​

22531.4​

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£-92.40​

DIAAAAP6KM5DTAK​

21/06/2024​

DEAL​

Apple Inc (All Sessions)​

DFB​

+0.50​

21064​

20972.4​

£​

£-45.80​

DIAAAAP6KKUQBAK​

21/06/2024​

DEAL​

Coinbase Global Inc (All Sessions)​

DFB​

-0.50​

22674​

22810​

£​

£-68.00​

DIAAAAP6KHCVNAK​


Meanwhile, you are making tens of thousands every day. On a strategy which frequently doesn't seem to follow the things you say to do. Of course you are.
 
Because doing so is participating, not anticipating.
No it isn't. It bounces off a clear bottom and you go short! WHat, you thought there would immediately be another one?! This is typical of your silliness. Either you believe you're right, which makes you thick, or you just want to be obstinate, which means as I've said many times, your head's in the wrong place. Who do you think you're kidding, after you've done it so much? Not me. Presumably you don't yet realise you're doing it so I'm being patient. If I were your boss you'd have been out by now.

1. Go with the trend
2. Have a catalyst
3. Look at volume
4. Look at MACD
5. Look at moving average crossovers
6. Have a pullback
7. Participate, don't anticipate
8. Always set a stop loss, and don't stay in for long if it's not working.
9. Look at related markets, especially bitcoin in relation to crypto.
That's not a bad set, but it misses loads out. What about Levels? What about the end of yesterday, or premarket highs, accumulation, distribution, candles, higher time frames,......?. Unfortunately you didn't apply the ones you SAY you used correctly on the trades I looked at.
I believe you look at a losing trade after the fact, and try to find domethng to justify it. Can only say that's childish.

Maybe you did right on some , I don't know. You don't need them all, though any can matter if it's big enough on the day. If you just go off levels and catalysts you'be mostly right.
If you applied all of those, I imagine you'd hardly ever trade, but you'd much less often lose. You have to be able to assess them at a look.
I don't know what you did in your former life but when faced with a situation, I expect you checked many many things, most of which weren't operating at the time.

Meanwhile, you are making tens of thousands every day.
No, I don't even trade every day, you made that up. Stop lying please. You keep doing it. Work out your frustrations somewhere else.

On a strategy which frequently doesn't seem to follow the things you say to do.
Using those as inputs doesn't mean they all have to be ticked off as positives. It does mean they shouldn't be big and negative though.
I don't make a list, I look at the situation, click around checking, , then the processing time is minimal. But I can see a trend, and an entry point, and a pullback, all at a glance. You're getting them wrong, then going to town on trying to justify what was obviously wrong.


Would you still try to say this was a downtrend?? Probably. A bit pathetic, isn't it.
1719068848820.png


"Of course I am" - quite often, yes. I often show where. I just showed you a screenshot from a 250k win over a few months. I didn't show you a x2 6 figure win on SMCI in about a fortnight where I just had a look every day. Lots of little trades don't win, obviously. The point is not to let them be big losses.

The last couple of days, I wasn't looking all day, but there were loads of opportunities for trades. This was yesterday. I logged in about 5pm.
Local levels had set up - yellow - and from earlier in the day.
1719072472278.png


It was at about the dotted line which was a huge level from earlier. I looked at the qqqs irc or other names, and went short about where the red line is. NVDA was due to go down from the news. The volume was ok, it had been rising a while, so bouncing off the level looked likely. My stop was at the level.
So I got about 2.5% , watching for reversals and only entering the shorts. They have easy patterns to spot those on the 1 minute. See??
Then it was ranging from about 1800, see?
VWAP is white. - often makes a level but it depends where you anchor it so that shifts the level a bit
.
So that was range trading between the levels of where the bid line now is and the blue. If you go long on the bottoms and short at the tops you coome out ok even if you miss one. As you see, an hour later there were higher and lower prices to close on so no trade lost.. Doesn't always do that. Was trading longs and shorts so got the bigger move in at about 21.00. Mostly, anyway.

All quite logical, predictable, based on just the levels and an eye on the qqqs. I was lucky at 21:00 perhaps, there could have been a much bigger jump because that was the quarterly redistribution of assets in the SP500.

That was predicted to cause an Apple drop so I was holding a short on that from 214, the day before (expensive at credit card swap rates).
So the apple trade paid much the same, at about 3.4%, with much less hassle than nvda.
You work it out, 6.8% of what I trade with. The share size shows there, at 2k shares of nvda. A bit over $16k. I had a couple of small stop-outs elsewhere, which came to about 800.
 
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21/06/2024​

DEAL​

Hut 8 Mining Corp (US)​

DFB​

+10​

1242.9​

1244.1​

£​

£12.00​

DIAAAAP6KR3MBAK​

21/06/2024​

DEAL​

NVIDIA Corp (All Sessions)​

DFB​

-0.50​

12603​

12727.2​

£​

£-62.10​

DIAAAAP6KLVHJAK​

21/06/2024​

DEAL​

NVIDIA Corp (All Sessions)​

DFB​

-0.50​

12614​

12703​

£​

£-44.50​

DIAAAAP6KTMYZAC​

21/06/2024​

DEAL​

Hut 8 Mining Corp (US)​

DFB​

+10​

1251.9​

1239.9​

£​

£-120.00​

DIAAAAP6KQSEPAK​

21/06/2024​

DEAL​

Coinbase Global Inc (All Sessions)​

DFB​

-1​

22439​

22531.4​

£​

£-92.40​

DIAAAAP6KM5DTAK​

21/06/2024​

DEAL​

Apple Inc (All Sessions)​

DFB​

+0.50​

21064​

20972.4​

£​

£-45.80​

DIAAAAP6KKUQBAK​

21/06/2024​

DEAL​

Coinbase Global Inc (All Sessions)​

DFB​

-0.50​

22674​

22810​

£​

£-68.00​

DIAAAAP6KHCVNAK​

Can't comment because there are no times. but looking at a couple, eg HUT, I can't see any entry points at 12519 long other than 14:39, which would have been a bit late, but you were a bit unlucky, it could have bounced higher. No trend established, so the size was "optimistic".
 
@ Arbu You could use one of the standard algo facilities with a broker with a asuitable API. If you start with one of (someone else's) very simple strategies, backtest it and see how it goes, then see what refinements are added to tune it, you'd learn a lot .
As you would read, a Successful Trader semi-consciously checks a dozen or more parameters before making a trade. At the moment you aren't doing that.
Also, a ST rigorously applies his rules. That's difficult for anyone.
A good-enough strategy will win more than it loses.
A strategy implemented by an algo but tweaked by some human intelligence - hopefully you - can do a lot better. It would eg open at the right time but be late closing, where you can do better.

I've done some but not left them running. I get a bit more accuracy manually so haven't used them much.
 
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Took a lump of "Consumer Discretionary" ETF first thing, just because it's the fave sector. It's up 0.9%. Doesn't sound much but not bad for 4 hours.
-- EDit

Chips stocks are down, bitcoin is down, but the rest of the market is quite strong. Retail sector is ok, banks ok (small US banks have delinquecies though) Glad I got out of tech-holding ETF when I did but a couple of institutions are likely to be so slow they'll still be hit.
 
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As above and as before - The crypto merchants were all rising on news and HUT8 (miner) seemed to be going about the fastest, though one of the others would have done.
1719360323492.png

Th previous post was made about where the yellow squiggle is.
So it rose about 12.5% for me then I went short down to VWAP (the white line) which gave another 3. Then I went long again then had had enough.
17% x 5 leverage = 85% profit on whatever shares you use.
Rivian jumped after market. I wasn't in it but got in, at about +20%, and it went up to 50%. Not quite as many shares on it, but even so, handy. Made the day a doubler.
One of the guests on the tradertv show observed that when a stock jumps more than half a dozen percent on results, or news, it keeps going. If it's only 4-5% or so, it falls back.
 
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