Stock market dealing

I won't look them up now - too long ago.
An advantage of the simulator is that you can leave every trade to to see what would have happened. So often though, you'd have been waiting through something you wouldn't want to worry with.
I only hold through a dip if I have confidence in the trend overall, and that it's reasonably steep.
Look hard at the wicks on this meagre uptrend from above:
1722647172681.png


You can tell when the rises are slowing down. Get out then - a bit early maybe but before there's a red. The following top wick or two is hardly any higher in most cases. Then wait until it's gone down, and shown another decent green before you get back in.
If it carries on up after a hesitation then you miss out on some of the rise, but you avoided a drop.

Of course we get caught out. Once I've started losing though on a trade I still prefer to get out. If you don't, the direction will usually continue backwards - though sod's law applies. At least you don't lose much. To hell with the extra profit you could have made if only.... That's not money out of your pocket.

Recently it hasn't often been easy. Tradertv's approach usually works
He decides which way something is likely to go, and what the levels are That's usually enough to sit there all day.
If there's no catalyst, then I wait for a trend to establish, otherwise I don't enter.
Quite often he's very wrong, which he gaslights. It's worth waiting to see if he's right.
I've found it best to stick to one stock. It's boring and if I get distracted, then I miss what I was waiting for, but it's worth it. Catena takes half his million bucks out as soon as he's up, so if it reverts all the way, he's still up. I can't easily do that, and I find it perverse to sit watching the profit ebb away.

Using one stock reduces the number of silly trades one is tempted into. I noticed you often take positions a couple of minutes apart. Pros don't do that, they take very few trades per day, or less. It takes a bit of time to assemble the "confluence" a decent rade needs.

Now we're seriously in slump times, the few stocks I was in, have dropped 3% or so. I was only out of most of them. NOne is individually very much, I forgot to apply SLs though in some cases it's not possible.. You can't be watching them all the time. I'll sell Monday unless I feel they're things which will probably jump back up soon.
The rest of the Passing fortunes are in bondy things or MM.
Last time there was a proper crash, people made heavy use of Short leveraged stocks and made a killing, I read.
That Shawn will be in London for a few days. He's annoying, so it'll be better on ttv.
 
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More nonsense:

TextDateSummaryMarketNameProfitAndLossOpen levelClose levelSizeDateUtcOpenDateUtc
02/08/2024​
NIO Inc - ADR (All Sessions)
-£97.00​
399​
408.7​
-10​
2024-08-02T15:50:342024-08-02T14:40:55
02/08/2024​
Coinbase Global Inc (All Sessions)
-£173.85​
20904​
20556.3​
0.5​
2024-08-02T14:41:392024-08-02T14:38:14
02/08/2024​
Marathon Digital Holdings Inc (All Sessions)
£146.40​
1815.3​
1778.7​
-4​
2024-08-02T14:37:212024-08-02T14:32:46
02/08/2024​
Apple Inc (All Sessions)
-£73.05​
22132​
22278.1​
-0.5​
2024-08-02T14:26:162024-08-02T14:09:42
02/08/2024​
Hut 8 Mining Corp (US)
-£130.50​
1355​
1328.9​
5​
2024-08-02T13:57:292024-08-02T13:49:49
02/08/2024​
NIO Inc - ADR (All Sessions)
-£60.00​
396​
402​
-10​
2024-08-02T13:50:122024-08-02T13:47:24
02/08/2024​
NIO Inc - ADR (All Sessions)
£250.00​
419​
394​
-10​
2024-08-02T13:04:442024-08-01T14:26:10
02/08/2024​
Short Interest for US/Can shares 01/08/24
£0.27​
-
0​
-2024-08-02T01:17:532024-08-02T01:17:53
02/08/2024​
Stock Borrowing for US/Can shares 01/08/24
-£0.17​
-
0​
-2024-08-02T01:17:532024-08-02T01:17:53
01/08/2024​
Microsoft Corp (All Sessions)
-£79.80​
42451​
42291.4​
0.5​
2024-08-01T14:48:532024-08-01T14:46:17
01/08/2024​
ARM Holdings PLC - ADR (All Sessions)
-£100.70​
12590​
12388.6​
0.5​
2024-08-01T14:43:022024-08-01T14:24:39
01/08/2024​
Tesla Motors Inc (All Sessions)
-£60.35​
22913​
22792.3​
0.5​
2024-08-01T14:15:222024-08-01T14:12:08
01/08/2024​
Tesla Motors Inc (All Sessions)
£62.50​
23111​
22986​
-0.5​
2024-08-01T14:08:162024-08-01T14:03:08
01/08/2024​
NVIDIA Corp (All Sessions)
£32.00​
11941​
11909​
-1​
2024-08-01T13:51:242024-08-01T13:49:34
01/08/2024​
Carvana Company
£55.00​
14753​
14863​
0.5​
2024-08-01T13:48:392024-08-01T13:46:30
01/08/2024​
NVIDIA Corp (All Sessions)
£1.00​
11857​
11856​
-1​
2024-08-01T13:34:282024-08-01T13:27:29
-228.25
 
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It's always interesting to see what percentage of punters lose money.
 
Any ideas on why the Stock Market took a tumble today? Something about The Yen Carry Trade and a rumour the Fed is about to cut interest rates has been mentioned but is there a deeper reason?
 
It's always interesting to see what percentage of punters lose money.
But traders on a Prop Floor (professional setups) only have 2-3 red days a month. They do the same thing , day after day... My average isn't that good, or certainly wouldn't be if I had to work at it every day.

Today I thought to myself, I had no idea what would happen. So I ignored all the Magnificent 7 and did the same as usual.
Bitcoin went up, so all the associated stocks did too. Same as I've posted many times. MARA, COIN. HUT, MSTR. They flew off at the open so I put some in 3 of them. They averaged something around 15% gains. I use 5x leverage, so that's 75% gain on the day.
1722891580694.png

That stock has a wide spread, so if the timing's bad you twitch. Where the vertical line is, I went down errm, quite a lot.


There was a strange combination of things going on. I don't pretend to understand it much. Day traders couldn't care less, they mostly just use "price action".
1) everyone was expecting more of a pullback - it's a self-fulfilling thing. You sell, just in case, then the prices drop so everyone sells....
2) The Sahm rule loomed. (implying a recession, by common interpretation)
3) Elliot waves predicted a downturn - ditto sf. (still do)
4) the US employment figures raised eyebrows, causing their stock to drop a bit Friday, and frightened the Japanese. So did Warren Buffet selling Apple secretly..
5) The actions of the Japanese treasury rattled people in Japan last night, which tanked their stock market.
6) The carry trade community had to react.

So stocks in Japan dropped about 12%, and the world dropped about 2-3% at the open.

The Carry Trade is a sort of arbitrage thing where you can borrow in eg Japan at about 0% interest, and invest in either US bonds at 4-5% or the Mag 7 at say 20%. Particularly used by the hoi poloi, and individuals worth more than a quarter Bn, which is where High Net Worth starts (I gather). Japanese individuals remortgage their houses to get the cash (!).

If your borrowing suddenly costs you something more than 0, , and your market yields are threatened, you move the money, which rattles everyone. There were some large trades today
 
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