War Machine

The current noises are mostly concerning aid not really actions in Gaza The occupied territory aspect do not get a mention other than via the ICC. A point worth bearing in mind. Extreme reluctance to even talk about it.

Odds said:
AI is written into the software
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There is a certain amount of misuse of that term. I'd say rather a lot of it.
 
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said Russian soldiers had begun to train with the Belarusian military in tactical nuclear weapons, which the Kremlin has hinted could be used on the battlefield in Ukraine.“[Russian forces were] likely conducting the initial phase of an offensive operation north of Kharkiv City that has limited operational objectives but is meant to achieve the strategic effect of drawing Ukrainian manpower and materiel from other critical sectors of the front in eastern Ukraine,” said the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington-based think tank.

The numbers of Russian troops appeared to confirm this. Ukrainian military commentators Konstantyn Mashovets and Alexander Kovalenko said Russia had committed about 2,000 soldiers to the front line, with about 2,000 more in immediate reserve and almost 4,000 due to arrive within a week of the initial attack. These forces struck at two points on the border, one bound for the settlement of Lyptsi, 18km north of Kharkiv city, and the other bound for Vovchansk, about 30km (18.6 miles) to the east.

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Analysis@Al Jazeera

Slow going for Ivan and maybe they will consider using a tactical nuke to create a buffer zone around Kharkiv - maybe not. Still, it's nice to know they're preparing for either scenario.
 
The progress of the war is under the West's control.

"Our" policy, led by US, is to provide sufficient resources for Ukraine to slow Russia's invasion, but not enough for Ukraine to win.

Trumpist policy is different. To oppose Biden at every opportunity, even if it means Ukraine is defeated.
 
JohnD said:
The progress of the war is under the West's control.
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Are you sure? The losses this year might've been avoided if the Republican's had signed off further funding for Ukraine's war effort. I'm not sure the UK policy is much different to the US. The number of Russian missiles and artillery getting through Ukraine defences has doubled due to their lack of ammunition. Putin can see it's a race to grab as much territory as possible before the new arms swing the balance back in Ukraine's favour. Their forces have pulled back to higher ground around Kharkiv and await the next attacks with determination. No lack or morale or courage has deterred them while the West dithered.
 
There is mixed reporting on Russia's current action. One mentions the relative ease their troops crossed the boarder in the NE. Numbers not mentioned other than they split into smaller units who went elsewhere. Fighting on the outskirts of a town denied and then mentioned.

Aims. Not clear. Might be to get Ukraine to move troops thinning them out. Might be signs of an attempted expansion. Thinning out means gear moved and more troops mean more gear needed.

Some now talking about Ukraine's counter offensive being next year.

Clairvoyant pundits. They have to talk about something or the other. All they have done is outlined 2 possibilities. a 3rd has had a bit of a mention - a diplomatic solution. Highly unlikely unless there is no choice.

It seems Blinken has agreed a $2b deal. That appears to cover 2 additional Patriot systems as requested by Ukraine.
 
Sending weapons is one thing but what about the personnel to use the weapons.
How many front line soldiers does Ukraine have left.
 
ajohn said:
It seems Blinken has agreed a $2b deal. That appears to cover 2 additional Patriot systems as requested by Ukraine.
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A Patriot will not destroy any Russian tanks, planes, airfields or arms depots.
 
More detail on the area of fighting shows how close Russia is to Kharkiv.

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Russia’s believed to have massed a force of more than 30,000 just over the border. Ukraine has not just been outnumbered on this front, it’s also been outgunned. On average Russia has been able to fire 10 times as many artillery shells. The hope is the deficit will narrow with the arrival of more US weapons and ammunition.

At an artillery position, hidden in a tree-line outside Vovchansk, men of Ukraine’s 57th Brigade have been firing 50 to 100 rounds a day to defend the town. When we arrive, they’re waiting for a fresh delivery of ammunition for their Russian-made self-propelled gun. Another 20 rounds are soon delivered by a small van. It’ll keep them going for a few more hours.

It’ll be hard to dislodge all the Russian forces who have now gained a significant foothold in the Kharkiv region. Mykhailo, the Ukrainian artillery commander at the position, tells me: “We are losing Vovchansk and we are also losing the villages around Vovchansk." And there is a feeling that this could have been avoided if defences had been better prepared. “We could have used logs and concrete to build defences. Now we’ll [have] to use shells and people to take back this land,” he tells me.

Jonathan Beale@BBCnews
 
Putin has said he currently has no interest in capturing Kharkiv. What he has done is illustrated that Ukraine's defence of this particular area is relatively poor and didn't take many troops to push through it. They even split again once in.

This leaves Ukraine with a problem. Increasing defence or taking it back needs more troops and equipment. Those need to be taken from elsewhere which will weaken the line where ever they come from. Ukraine has also noticed another possible problem. A part of the same area where Russia might do the same again so feel they need to bolster up defences to prevent it. Ukraine is evac'ing citizens from the areas at risk.

Kharkiv had a very extended air attack via drones and missiles last night. Reported as the longest so far in the war.
 
Russia has surplus of so called dumb bombs dating back decades.
They are fitting pair of wings and and a homing device to them to guide the bomb to its target.
They are causing a lot of damage.
 
The average age of a Ukraine soldier is in the low 40's. They have dropped the min age by 2 years but it's still higher than what other countries use. The reason is a shortage of people that starts showing around 30. Lop sided age spread in the population. Also talk of using prisoners. UK and US average soldier ages differ but saying ~30 isn't far out. US younger.
 
Ukraine wants to use the estimated 210 billion euros ($228bn) of Russian central bank money held in European institutions to defeat Russia on the battlefield. The EU froze those assets in February 2022, immediately after Russia invaded Ukraine. Another 50 billion euros ($54bn) are frozen around the world.

After years of debate, the bloc decided on Tuesday to allow Ukraine to use just the interest earned by those accounts, which the EU believes would amount to about 2.5 to 3 billion euros ($2.7bn-$3.3bn) a year. “There’s no precedent for the freezing of assets on this scale, and therefore the issue of what to do with the interest was never this acute,” Anton Moiseienko, a lecturer in international law at Australian National University, told Al Jazeera. “In this sense, new ground is being broken.”
 
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